BFS Current Story

#17 Cincinnati Comes to Corvallis to Face the #24 Beavers

9-18.2009 - OK Beaver Fans, we have been asking for that big east coast program to come to Corvallis for years and now we have what we asked for. It may not be a Michigan, Notre Dame or Texas, but if you know your college football and are not just some wannabe who thinks those are the only programs in the world. Then you know this IS a big time game.

Not only is this a big big game for our Beavers hopes this season, but it is a big game for the future of more games like this coming to Corvallis. If we want the Oklahoma's, Texas, Michigan type teams to come into Corvallis then we need to sell out Reser tomorrow and also put on the best face we can for our guests from Cincinnati, the Nation and the Network.

Those guys down I-5 from us pack out their stadium, put on great tailgaters, pregame shows, etc. That is what makes kids from other schools and the networks want to come to your town to play. So lets pack out Reser, show up early, party hard, be louder then ever and cheer on our Beavers to Victory. BRING OUT THE ORANGE!

Cincinnati is the defending Big East Conference Champion and went to the Orange Bowl last season, losing to Virginia Tech 20-7. The Bearcats head coach, Brian Kelly is the 2 time defending Big East Coach of the Year. Currently the Bearcats are second in the nation in scoring offense (58.5 ppg) and is fifth in the nation in total offense (571 ypg). This is a team that is returning 8 offensive starters and crushed the Beavers two years ago (when they were not as good as they are now) 34-3.

If you as an Oregon State fan are not jacked up for this game then you had better check yourself into a hospital right now because I believe you are probably dead. WE REALLY REALLY NEED TO FILL RESER ON SATURDAY AND MAKE IT AS LOUD AS POSSIBLE!

Here is just an example of how different it is for teams from the East Coast to come out to Oregon for a game.

1. They are already talking about selling out their next game and not talking that much on the team website about the Beavers
2. A reporter for Cincinnati is still talking about the big win two years ago
3. That same reporter is wondering if the "ALTITUDE" in Oregon will be a factor for the Bearcats.

WHAT ALTITUDE? Corvallis Oregon, according to Wikipedia is 235 feet above sea level. Cincinnati Ohio is 435 feet above sea level. I never new dropping 200 feet in elevation can be a major factor in a teams performance. You can read Scott Springer's article here. I think Mr. Springer needs to do more research prior to the Bearcats games.

BY THE NUMBERS

KEYS	STATISTIC	OSU	CINN	Advantage
.	Records	2-0	2-0	TIE
.	Scoring Offense	28.5	58.5	CINN
.	Scoring Defense	14.0	9.0	CINN
.	Total Offense	407.5	571.0	CINN
.	Total Defense	330.5	234.5	CINN
.	Rushing Offense	167.5	197.5	CINN
.	Rushing Defense	79.5	52.0	CINN
.	Passing Offense	240.0	373.5	CINN
.	Passing Defense	251.0	182.5	CINN
.	Pass Efficiency	167.1	197.4	CINN
.	Pass Defense Efficiency	126.4	93.8	CINN
.	Kickoff Returns	26.8	32.0	CINN
.	Punt Return Average	1.0	22.2	CINN
.	Interceptions	1	6	CINN
.	Punting	35.7	33.2	OSU
.	Kickoff Coverage	41.3	49.7	CINN
.	Field Goals	3/4=.750	1/1=1.00	OSU
.	PAT Kicking	6/7=.857	16/16=1.00	CINN
.	Sacks by	1	6	CINN
.	Sacks Against	5	1	CINN
.	First Downs	38	52	CINN
.	Opponent First Downs	36	29	CINN
.	3rd Down Conversions	53.8	60.0	CINN
.	3rd Down Defense	46.2	30.3	CINN
.	4th Down Conversions	50.0	0.0	OSU
.	4th Down Defense	0.0	100.00	OSU
.	Penalties	45.0	30.0	CINN
.	Time of Possession	31.20	29.49	OSU
.	Turnover Margin	+3	+6	CINN
.	Red Zone Offense	87.5	84.6	OSU
.	Red Zone Defense	66.7	100.00	OSU
.	Home Field Advantage	YES	NO	OSU
32	Totals	8	23	CINN

If you look at the numbers both teams have put up so far this season Cincinnati should be a huge favorite. They dominate the stats winning 23 of the 32 categories selected and in many cases that differences are not even close. But if stats can show who should win then why are the Bearcats only favored by 1.5 points at the time of this writing? The Beavers have played Portland State at home (Big Sky Conference Member - D-1FCS) and UNLV on the road (D-1FBS). Cincinnati has played Rutgers, (a Big East Conference member D-1FBS) at Rutgers and Southeast Missouri State (an Ohio Valley Conference Member - D-1FCS). So there opponents have been very similar. In most cases the home team is given a 3 point edge for home field advantage and then the differences go from there. So is Cincinnati only a 4.5 favorite on a neutral site? I don't see it. Perhaps it is the Big East Conference not getting the respect they deserve. Sounds like we are playing a Mountain West Conference team, oh wait, that is the other school down the road.

What I see in this is a Cincinnati team that has all the makings of being in another BCS Bowl game if they win out. There is all this talk about Utah, BYU or Boise State busting into the BCS but from watching Cincinnati on TV I think they have a chance to play for the BCS title if they keep it rolling. So how are the Beavers going to beat this powerhouse team?

THE BOTTOM LINE

For the Beavers to win this game they have to do a few things right. 1. NO TURNOVERS 2. CONTROL THE BALL WITH THE RUNNING GAME. 3. STOP THE PASSING GAME OF CINNCINATI. 4.LIMIT THE BIG PLAY

Sean Canfield may be playing in the biggest game of his career and he has some payback coming his way. Canfield played in Cincinnati two years ago and knows this team. So did James Rodgers. Canfield, James and Quizz need to control this offense and keep it moving forward. Then a couple other guys need to come up with key plays. If they can do this the Beavers will do enough on offense to win.

The Beavers defense has to stop the Bearcats passing game from eating them alive like UNLV did in the second half. Then the defense front 4 need to put enough pressure on the QB to make him make a mistake while also shutting down the running game. If the Beavers can come out hot in the first quarter like they have for years now they will force Cincinnati to go to the air more and that is when the defense needs to raise to the occasion.

Look for the Beavers defense to hold the Bearcats well below the season points average and keep the Bearcats below or at 30 points. That is the key number in this game. If the Beavers can keep Cincinnati at or below 30 points they have a chance of winning this game. The second half will be the difference in the game. If the Beavers can control the third quarter and come out with a lead I think we win this game.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 34
PITT PANTHERS 30

GO BEAVERS!

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