BFS Current Story

BEAVERS IN BAY AREA FOR SHOWDOWN WITH CAL

11-5-2009 - The next 4 games for the Beavers will determine how much of a success this season will be. For Oregon State the standard that success is measured by has changed in the last 11 years. Today, success for Oregon State is 8 or more wins per season and contending for a PAC-10 title every year. The programs success is also determined, like it or not, by how successful the team down the road is doing. This year, for the Beavers to consider this season a success and to stay on track to be considered a top team in the PAC-10 conference, the Beavers need to win at least 3 of their next 4 games.

With Oregon in first place and undefeated in conference play, a win in Eugene will be difficult at best. Cal on the other hand has struggled with good teams and is currently tied with the Beavers at 3-2 in conference. So a win in Strawberry Canyon this Saturday is the best option for the Beavers to get a win between the two teams. The other 2 remaining games have the Huskies coming to Corvallis and the Beavers going to WSU. The Huskies game will be a tough game but the Beavers should win that one and WSU is just plain bad so that game should be a route.

So that leaves CAL and Oregon to get the third win and CAL is the best option of the two. CAL's star running back, Jahvid Best, is recovering from a concussion and his status for Saturday is up in the air. The Beavers have had good success at CAL in recent years and this season the Beavers seem to be playing better on the road then at home. So the CAL game is the key to success for the Beavers this season. A win gets the Beavers bowl eligible and will keep them in that third place spot with either Stanford and USC with 2 loses depending upon how they do this weekend.

With the Ducks playing at Stanford on Saturday the Cardinal may lose so that would drop another team below the Beavers. That would leave the Beavers tied with USC in the third spot with Oregon 1st and Arizona 2nd. Hard to believe as bad as the Beavers played Arizona at home we could have won that game and been in second ourselves at this point of the season.

A loss for the Beavers this weekend will drop the Beavers into the bottom half of the conference with 3 loses and remove any chance of getting into a better bowl game. With 3 teams in conference already bowl eligible (Oregon, USC and CAL) and Arizona playing the Cougars will give the Wildcats 6 wins and make them bowl eligible. The Beavers will be in the 5th spot looking up at the rest of the conference. So a win at CAL is as close to a must win game for the Beavers as it gets.

BY THE NUMBERS

KEYS	STATISTIC	OSU	CAL	Advantage
.	Records	5-3(3-2)	6-2(3-2)	TIE
.	Scoring Offense	29.4	33.6	CAL
.	Scoring Defense	24.9	22.1	CAL
.	Total Offense	408.6	427.4	CAL
.	Total Defense	380.1	377.2	CAL
.	Rushing Offense	136.5	196.1	CAL
.	Rushing Defense	108.0	109.2	OSU
.	Passing Offense	272.1	231.2	OSU
.	Passing Defense	272.1	268.0	CAL
.	Pass Efficiency	142.5	136.7	OSU
.	Pass Defense Efficiency	132.5	134.8	OSU
.	Kickoff Returns	23.8	23.0	OSU
.	Punt Return Average	9.3	10.6	CAL
.	Interceptions	5	7	CAL
.	Punting (NET)	37.7	37.5	OSU
.	Kickoff Coverage	43.2	39.7	OSU
.	Field Goals	15/19=.789	8/15=.533	OSU
.	PAT Kicking	24/25=.960	35/35=1.0	CAL
.	Sacks by	8	23	CAL
.	Sacks Against	23	17	CAL
.	First Downs	170	170	TIE
.	Opponent First Downs	169	143	CAL
.	3rd Down Conversions	43.6	38.5	OSU
.	3rd Down Defense	37.3	35.0	CAL
.	4th Down Conversions	71.4	16.7	OSU
.	4th Down Defense	60.0	31.2	CAL
.	Penalties	56.8	54.2	CAL
.	Time of Possession	31.17	29.10	OSU
.	Turnover Margin	+3	+8	CAL
.	Red Zone Offense	94.1	82.1	OSU
.	Red Zone Defense	88.9	84.0	CAL
.	Home Field Advantage	-	CAL	CAL
32	Totals	12	18	CAL

Again this week the Oregon State football program is behind in stats to their opponent with almost all the major offensive and defensive stats going CAL's way. Things that stand out and could make a difference in this game is field goal kicking. OSU is 15 of 19 on field goals this season while CAL is a terrible 8 of 15 on field goal attempts. Combine that with Oregon States passing offense and rushing defense and the Beavers should move the ball on CAL.

So this game looks to turn on a couple of factors once again. Canfield controlling the offense with the passing game, Quizz and James keeping the CAL defense on edge with the running game and Justin making his field goals. Also the Beavers O-line must keep CAL and their 23 sacks off Canfield while the D-line must shut down the CAL running game.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Beavers go into CAL and come home with a victory. Quizz rushes for over 150 yards and 2 TD's while Canfield throws 2 TD's. Beavers defense will continue to struggle in the second half but the offense keeps CAL off the field long enough for the defense to hold on and make a stop or two. Look for it to be a shoot out with the Beavers hanging on for a win.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 38
CAL 28

GO BEAVERS!

BFS