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WE BELIEVE! - IT'S TIME FOR THE 112TH CIVIL WAR!

11-28-2008 - Well, It's that time. Time for the playing of the 112th Civil War. This game, more then any other in recent memory, has the more meaning to Oregon State fans then any Civil War game in the last 45 years. Even more so then the 2000 Civil War when you had two top 10 teams coming into Corvallis with the PAC-10 title on the line. This game still means more. A victory on Saturday sends the Beavers, yes our beloved Beavers, to the Rose Bowl.

In the history of the PAC-10 conference there are only two other teams that have had longer Rose Bowl droughts then the Beavers (Actually only one). Since joining the conference in the late 70's Arizona has never been to the Rose Bowl. The other is Cal, the last time the Bears made it was during the 1958 season.

I am so excited and nervious about this game that right now, while writing this story, I could lose my lunch. My stomach is in knots. I know that Coach Riley will have his players ready to play and they will be much more relaxed then I am right now.

The weather forcast for Saturday is for overcast skies and temperatures in the mid 40's at game time with winds of around 7mph. At this time there is no rain in the forecast. Should be great football weather.

To me this game is the most scary of the last 5 games. Oregon is a very explosive team on offense. Their running game is very strong and leads the conference. If you concentrate to hard on stopping the running game they will beat you in the air. The Ducks lead the PAC-10 in scoring offense, total offense and rushing offense. The Beavers are ranked 2nd in the conference those same categories on the defensive side of the ball. So you have the #1 offense going up against the #2 defense. But the Beavers offense is not so bad in itself. The Beavers rank 3rd or 4 the on offense in those same categies as well as leadhing the conferense in passing offense.

BY THE NUMBERS

Key	STATISTIC	OSU	OREGON	Advantage
.	Records	8-3(7-1)	8-3(6-2)	OSU
.	Scoring Offense	32.4 - 4TH	39.8 - 1ST	ORE
.	Scoring Defense	21.4 - 2ND	27.1 - 6TH	OSU
.	Total Offense	414.2 - 3RD	458.5 - 1ST	ORE
.	Total Defense	289.6 - 2ND	375.7 - 7TH	OSU
.	Rushing Offense	171.5 - 4TH	268.1 - 1ST	ORE
.	Rushing Defense	112.0 - 2ND	122.2 - 3RD	OSU
.	Passing Offense	242.7 - 1ST	190.5 - 7TH	OSU
.	Passing Defense	177.6 - 4TH	253.5 - 10TH	OSU
.	Pass Efficiency	138.5 - 3RD	117.9 - 6TH	OSU
.	Pass Defense Efficiency	111.0 - 4TH	122.4 - 7TH	OSU
.	Kickoff Returns	23.3 - 3RD	22.3 - 5TH	OSU
.	Punt Return Average	9.0 - 7TH	13.2 - 3RD	ORE
.	Interceptions	12 - 4TH	12 - 4TH	TIE
.	Punting	32.2 - 9TH	36.2 - 5TH	ORE
.	Kickoff Coverage	40.6 - 7TH	44.7 - 3RD	ORE
.	Field Goals	15/22=.682	15/22=.682	TIE
.	PAT Kicking	39/42=.929	49/51=.961	ORE
.	Sacks by	31 - 3RD	33 - 2ND	ORE
.	Sacks Against	11 - 1ST	15 - 2ND	OSU
.	First Downs	240	257	ORE
.	Opponent First Downs	174 - 3RD	224 - 7TH	OSU
.	3rd Down Conversions	40.7 - 4TH	37.7 - 6TH	OSU
.	3rd Down Defense	29.0 - 2ND	39.0 - 7TH	OSU
.	4th Down Conversions	57.1 - 3RD	43.8 - 5TH	OSU
.	4th Down Defense	53.8 - 6TH	41.2 - 3RD	ORE
.	Penalties	55.9 - 5TH	58.5 - 6TH	ORE
.	Time of Possession	32.21 - 1ST	24.55 - 10TH	OSU
.	Turnover Margin	+6 - 2nd	+1 - 6TH	OSU
.	Red Zone Offense	84.6 - 3RD	82.5 - 7TH	OSU
.	Red Zone Defense	87.1 - 6TH	93.0 - 10TH	OSU
.	Home Field Advantage	HOME	VISITOR	OSU
32	Totals	19	11	OSU

The Beavers hold the lead in the stats breakdown 19-11. The key areas of each are pretty clear. The Ducks have a strong offense that scores a lot of points with their ground game. But after that, the Beavers trail in only the same areas that they have trailed in all season long. Special Team kicking game and return game. To offset the Ducks offense is the Beavers defense. The Ducks lead 3 or 4 offensive categories but the Beavers lead in all 4 defensive categories. And in most other categories that the Beavers lead in they are signicant leads. The difference is usually 3rd in conference to 7th in conference. The Beavers also rank high in conference in the offensive areas that the Ducks are leading in. So combine those facts and I see this being a close game but one the Beavers should come out of with the win.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Beavers need to be aware of and stop the Ducks ground game. But they must do that up front without providing to much help fromt the secondary or the Ducks can beat them through the air which is where most think the Ducks cannot do the job. So the Beavers D-line and linebackers need to come up big in this game. The Beavers also need to continue to take care of the ball and not turn it over. This game could and most likely will be decided by the defenses and who can get the key turnovers. The Beavers crowd also has to be louder then they have ever been in their lives. So loud that the Ducks have trouble hearing the signals. That is a huge factor that no coach or player can effectively practice for. With Quizz Rodgers most likely out of the game the job of running the ball will fall to Ryan McCants. Ryan needs to hang onto the ball and hit those holes hard and the O-line needs to continue it great work of opening those holes.

The bottom line is this is going to be a shoot out and it will come down to which defense can win the day.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 38
DUCKS 31

GO BEAVERS!

BFS