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OSU Beavers Look to Hold Onto Tie for First at Home Against ASU

10-30-2008 - The Oregon State football team is hosting Dennis Erickson and the Arizona State Sun Devils this Saturday night at 7:15pm. You remember Dennis Erickson don't you. He is that guy who took the Beavers, and some of these crazy fans down to Tempe Arizona for a New Year's Party that many won't soon forget.

Well, the Beavers could be on their way to another big New Years Party if they can continue to play the way they have the last few weeks. The Beavers currently sit tied for first place in the PAC-10 and own the tie breaker over USC. So, the Beavers control their own destiny. If they win their remaining 5 games, they will be going to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 44 years.

But first, they have to beat Dennis Erickson and the Arizona State Sun Devils at Reser Stadium at 7:15 pm. The Game will be televised on Fox Sports.

ASU comes into Corvallis in 8th place in the PAC-10 at 1-3 (2-5 overall) and have lost 5 games in a row to UNLV, Georgia, Cal, USC and Oregon. I though schedule to say the least. The Beavers come into this game at 3-1 (4-3 overall) and are 4-1 in their last 5 games with wins over Hawaii, USC, WSU and Washington. The lone loss was at Utah in the final seconds of the game.

Arizona State is coming to the end of the most difficult part of their schedule so you cannot and should not take their record for what it is at first glance. Of those 5 loses, 4 were against ranked teams. So there is still life on the ASU bench and the Beavers will have to come ready to play and not overlook ASU and look ahead to UCLA in the Rose Bowl.

ASU leads the series 24-9-1, but is 6-6-1 in Corvallis. Sun Devil QB Rudy Carpenter is 7th all time in the PAC-10 with 74 touchdown passes. The Sun Devils also bring senior wide outs and skilled defensive ends to the game that could put pressure on the Beavers on both sides of the ball.

The Beavers bring their multi-faceted offense to the game with Moevao, the Rodgers Brothers, Stroughter and Morales doing the damage on offense. The Beavers defense has also hit its stride at the right time as they seem to have gelled. They have been performing like the Beaver defenses we are used to seeing by shutting down the run and locking down receivers on the outside. The Beavers also have this going for them. Mike Riley is 11-0 when coming off a bye-week since coming to Corvallis.

BY THE NUMBERS

Key	STATISTIC	OSU	ASU	Advantage
.	Records	4-3(3-1)	2-5(1-3)	OSU
.	Scoring Offense	34.6	19.3	OSU
.	Scoring Defense	23.7	26.6	OSU
	Total Offense	433.4	333.7	OSU
	Total Defense	303.6	364.0	OSU
.	Rushing Offense	173.7	87.0	OSU
.	Rushing Defense	126.0	165.1	OSU
	Passing Offense	259.7	246.7	OSU
	Passing Defense	177.6	198.9	OSU
	Pass Efficiency	139.5	123.0	OSU
	Pass Defense Efficiency	113.7	118.3	OSU
.	Kickoff Returns	23.1	22.0	OSU
	Punt Return Average	8.8	13.8	ASU
	Interceptions	8	8	TIE
.	Punting	32.5	34.3	ASU
	Kickoff Coverage	39.3	44.8	ASU
X	Field Goals	7/12=.583	8.12=.667	ASU
X	PAT Kicking	27/29=.931	15/16=.938	TIE
X	Sacks by	15	9	OSU
.	Sacks Against	8	18	OSU
.	First Downs	163	129	OSU
.	Opponent First Downs	113	139	OSU
.	3rd Down Conversions	42.1	28.0	OSU
x	3rd Down Defense	31.9	39.2	OSU
x	4th Down Conversions	60.0	33.3	OSU
.	4th Down Defense	55.6	40.0	ASU
.	Penalties	58.4	58.4	TIE
	Time of Possession	32.39	29.30	OSU
	Turnover Margin	+4	-3	OSU
X	Red Zone Offense	85.3	78.3	OSU
X	Red Zone Defense	80.0	86.7	OSU
.	Home Field Advantage	HOME	VISITOR	OSU
32	Totals	23	5	OSU

The stats reflect how each team has performed to date. The Beavers lead in 23 of 32 categories and tie in 3 others. As we have seen all season so far in the stats, the categories we are behind are pretty much the kicking game. Our punting, place kicking, kick off coverage and punt return yardage fall behind other teams. This is a major area that I am sure Coach Riley is working as hard as possible to get better at. Winning the field position game is key to getting the short field situations teams need to capitalize on and score quick points. The Beavers have been able to offset this to date with a strong defense that has shut down many drives and forced field goals or less.

Again the Beavers will rely on the Rodgers brothers to pound out the running game. The offensive line needs to continue to do the outstanding job they have done over the last 5 games and open holes for Quizz and James to run through. The passing game continues to succeed thanks to smart decision making by Moevao and his talented receivers. Quizz needs 188 yards to break the 1,000 yard barrier this season. He is currently leading the PAC-10 in rushing with 812 yards. Lyle Moevao is also leading the conference by averaging 254.1 yards per game. The Beavers also have 3 receivers in the top ten in receptions per game. Stroughter, Morales and James Rodgers.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Beavers should win this game but perhaps closer then most think. ASU has their backs to the wall and will come out fighting hard for the victory. The Beavers need to win the turnover battle as always and score early to put pressure on Carpenter to throw more. The ASU rushing game has not shown up so far this season and I look for the Beavers defense to shut it down again and force Carpenter to throw. Once that has happened the Beavers D-line will have to get to Carpenter and pressure him into mistakes and interceptions.

I look for another big game from Quizz and James Rodgers as well as Moevao. The Beavers offense will work the running game and stretch the defense with a few deep passes early to help open up the running game. I see this game being somewhat close going into the 3rd quarter and the Beavers pulling away in the second half.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 42
SUN DEVILS 20

GO BEAVERS!

BFS