BFS Current Story

WE BELIEVE! - Beavers Travel to Tucson To Face Arizona

11-21-2008 - The Oregon State Football Team is within sight of their goal. Just two things stand in their way to achieving that goal. First is the University of Arizona Wildcats football team. To achieve that goal they must first take care of the Wildcats this Saturday. The Wildcats are 6-4 overall and 4-3 in conference and are currently tied for forth with California. The second thing that stands in their way does not matter until the first thing is taken care of. If the Beavers don't win on Saturday at Arizona then the other thing no longer matters. The old saying really is true this time. They have to take it "One Game at a Time".

A win by the Beavers will clinch a tie for at least 2nd in the PAC-10. The Beavers finished third in the PAC-10 the last two seasons. But that is not what the fans or the players are looking for, not at this stage of the season. The Beavers are looking to win it all and claim their first conference title since 2000 when they finished the season 11-1 and #4 in the nation and Fiesta Bowl Champions.

The Beavers will also being going bowling for the eighth time in the last 10 years. That is a real tribute to the hard work and effort by so many people at Oregon State. From the coaches, the Players and especially the administration, the Beavers have turned around a football program that was at one time one of the worst in the country. The Alumni, Students and fans of Oregon State should be very proud of what has been accomplished over the last 12 years starting with Mike Riley in 1997.

Needless to say this is a huge game for both teams. With a win, Arizona can move to 5-3 in conference with only ASU left on the schedule at home in two weeks. That gives Arizona a chance with a win over the Beavers and a win at home over ASU to finish the season 6-3 in conference and a third place finish in the conference. That would be Arizonas best finish in many many years. So they still have lots to play for. The Beavers need to win out to win the PAC-10. They have won 8 of the last 9 games and 3 straight in Arizona.

BY THE NUMBERS

Key	STATISTIC	OSU	ARIZONA	Advantage
.	Records	7-3(6-1)	6-4(4-3)	OSU
.	Scoring Offense	33.7 - 4th	39.7 - 2nd	ARIZ
.	Scoring Defense	21.8 - 2nd	22.7 - 4th	OSU
	Total Offense	416.6 - 3rd	412.9 - 4th	OSU
	Total Defense	288.9 - 2nd	307.3 - 3rd	OSU
.	Rushing Offense	172.0 - 5th	172.4 - 4th	ARIZ
.	Rushing Defense	109.3 - 2nd	138.4 - 6th	OSU
	Passing Offense	244.6 - 1st	240.5 - 4th	OSU
	Passing Defense	179.6 - 4th	168.9 - 3rd	ARIZ
	Pass Efficiency	139.2 - 3rd	142.1 - 2nd	ARIZ
	Pass Defense Efficiency	108.1 - 4th	103.5 - 3rd	ARIZ
.	Kickoff Returns	23.2 - 3rd	19.4 - 9th	OSU
	Punt Return Average	9.7 - 7th	18.5 - 1st	ARIZ
	Interceptions	12 - 6th	14 - 2nd	ARIZ
.	Punting	31.4 - 10th	36.6 - 2nd	ARIZ
	Kickoff Coverage	40.2 - 7th	45.6 - 2nd	ARIZ
X	Field Goals	13/20=.650 - 8th	11/13=.846 - 3rd	ARIZ
X	PAT Kicking	38/40=.950 - 8th	50/50=1.0 - 1st	ARIZ
X	Sacks by	28 - 3rd	18 - 6th	OSU
.	Sacks Against	10 - 1st	23 - 6th	OSU
.	First Downs	223	223	TIE
.	Opponent First Downs	155 - 3rd	148 - 1st	ARIZ
.	3rd Down Conversions	41.2 - 4th	44.4 - 2nd	ARIZ
x	3rd Down Defense	28.0 - 1st	32.8 - 4th	OSU
x	4th Down Conversions	58.3 - 2nd	23.1 - 9th	OSU
.	4th Down Defense	50.0 - 6th	57.1 - 8th	OSU
.	Penalties	58.3 - 5th	29.7 - 1st	ARIZ
	Time of Possession	32.51 - 1st	32.09 - 2nd	OSU
	Turnover Margin	+6 - 2nd	+6 - 2nd	TIE
X	Red Zone Offense	83.7 - 5th	93.9 - 2nd	ARIZ
X	Red Zone Defense	85.7 - 5th	92.0 - 8th	OSU
.	Home Field Advantage	VISITOR	HOME	ARIZ
32	Totals	13	16	ARIZ

This is the first game since the USC game that the Beavers do not lead more categories then the other team. I did not do a pregame breakdown for Utah so I do not know how those would have worked out. Many of the categories are very close with one team just slightly higher then the other. If you took out their non-conference games I would expect to see the Beavers ahead in the numbers as they had the more difficult non-conference schedule. But the majority of the areas the Beavers are behind in are similar to what they were behind in other games like Cal. They have been down in special teams all season and in the case of Cal also trailed in pass defense. Many other categories are of no real significance or are to close to be of any real advantage. That said the Beavers will need to do what they have been doing the last few weeks. Take care of the ball, control the clock, run the ball affectively to open up the passing game.

Arizona has some big threats on special teams and so do the Beavers. This game like the Cal game is going to come down to which team can execute their game plan the best. It being a home game for Arizona and with so much on the line I expect it to be sold out with a very loud and wild crowd. The Beavers will need to keep their emotions in check and play under control to win this game.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Beavers need to score early to take the crowd out of the game. Arizona is having their best season in many years and Arizona Stadium will be rocking. Controlling the clock and scoring early will help keep the crowd out of the game. The longer they have to cheer the more tired the fans will get as will the Arizona defense. Should be a great game and I am not sure if both teams will score lots of points or if it will be low scoring. But its time for me to make a prediction so I guess I had better figure it out.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 34
WILDCATS 28

GO BEAVERS!

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