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Beavers Hope to Get Civil War Victory in Eugene for First Time Since 1993 in
"The Battle of the Backups"

November 28, 2007

It's The Civil War, the one game that all fans of Oregon and Oregon State wait for all year long. This year marks the 111th playing of the Civil War and it will be played at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, home of the Ducks.

As you may or may not know depending on your Civil War knowledge, the home team has won the last 10 Civil Wars and a few weeks ago this year appeared that it was not going to be any different. But things have changed since the month of November started. The Beavers were once 2-3 and wondering if they were ever going to find an offense. Now the Beavers have won 5 of 6 and are 7-4 overall and fighting for a top 3 (possibly 1 or 2) finish in the PAC-10 depending upon what happens on saturday down south.

The Ducks, who back on Nov. 4th were the #2 ranked team in the nation, have fallen hard the last two games and are looking to salvage a once promising season. The Ducks have lost their Heisman Trophy QB Dennis Dixon, Backup QB Brady Leaf, Backup QB Nate Costa to injury and are left with their 4th and 5th string QB's redshirt freshman Cody Kempt and redshirt freshman Justin Roper. The Ducks have also lost several other key players on offense.

The Beavers enter this week with their own injury issues. Starting QB Sean Canfield is out with a shoulder injury, starting and senior tailback Yvenson Bernard is day to day with a knee injury. The Beavers have also lost starters on the offensive line, wide receiver, safety, cornerback, defensive line and linebacker to injury. But they appear to have weathered the storm of injuries better then the Ducks have.

Since the loss of their starting QB's, Oregon has gone 0-2 and the Beavers have gone 2-0. The Ducks once high flying offense has gone down in flames gaining only 148 yards against UCLA last week. Oregon State however went into Washington State and put up 431 yards of offense without Canfield or Bernard.

It is for this reason that last week I started calling this game "The Battle of the Backups". And I am proud to say that the Oregonian uttered those same words on the front page of the paper yesterday. Perhaps they read this website as well?

Another big deal for me is I will be attending my first ever game in Autzen Stadium. I will be attending the game with a Duck friend of mine who had an extra ticket. I will be in the middle of the Duck section, "an orange dot in a sea of green". But despite that I will cheer for my fellow Beavers with the same vigor that I always have. I just hope the Duck fans have a sense of humor, it should be fun. I will bring back a report of the game and my experiences next week.

BY THE NUMBERS

Key	STATISTIC	OSU	OREGON	OREGON'S LAST GAME @ UCLA	Advantage
.	Records	7-4(5-3)	8-3(5-3)	0-1	TIE
.	Scoring Offense	27.5	37.2	0	ORE
.	Scoring Defense	22.6	22.5	16	TIE
.	Passing Offense	200.4	225.6	105	ORE
.	Passing Defense	246.6	250.8	64	OSU
.	Kickoff Returns	20.4	24.2	24	ORE
.	Punting	31.2	36.6	42.1	ORE
X	Turnover Margin	+3	+3	-2	TIE
X	Rushing Offense	162.3	247.6	43	ORE
X	Rushing Defense	64.0	129.5	156	OSU
.	Total Offense	362.6	473.3	148	ORE
.	Total Defense	310.6	380.3	220	OSU
.	Punt Return Average	6.2	7.8	8.5	ORE
.	Pass Efficiency	104.0	132.5	-	ORE
x	Pass Defense Efficiency	115.9	117.9	-	OSU
x	First Downs	206	275	12	ORE
.	Opponent First Downs	178	212	10	OSU
X	Sacks	41	35	5	OSU
.	Penalties	58.8	47.5	34	ORE
X	Red Zone Offense	81.6	84.0	0.0	ORE
X	Red Zone Defense	75.9	68.6	75.0	ORE
X	3rd Down Conversions	35.2	43.9	22.7	ORE
X	3rd Down Defense	28.7	32.6	11.8	OSU
	Sacks Allowed	31	22	5	ORE
.	Field Goals	18/23	16/20	0/0	ORE
.	Time of Possession	32.11	29.04	28.04	OSU
.	Home Field Advantage	VISITOR	HOME	VISITOR	ORE
.	Totals	8 wins	16 wins		ORE

 

In looking at the numbers it is very apparent just how well the Ducks were earlier in the season. They dominate the statistics even in areas that I thought the Beavers would have the advantage. But in order to get a better idea of what we might see on saturday, I have included an extra collumn that shows the stats from the UCLA game when the Ducks started the two men who will start this saturday. Now, that said, these two young QB's will have an extra week of practice under their belts and also will have taken many more snaps in practice then prior to the UCLA game. So I expect the Ducks to show more offense then they did against UCLA.

The problem for the Beavers in my opinion is how to gameplan for a Duck offense that will no doubt be much different then the only game you have to view tape of with these two QB's. I guess that is why Coach Riley and his assistents get paid for what they do. I would expect the Ducks to simplify the offense and make it more vertical then before. Kempf is a more mobile QB then Roper but Roper can throw the deep ball better then Kempf.

The key in this game will be the performance of the offensive lines for each team. With Oregon playing two young QB's the Duck Oline had better protect their QB or it could be a long day. Same for the Beavers. Both teams get to the quarterback a lot so protection will be a key. Both offenses have young quarterbacks but the Beavers have the edge in experience. If the Beaver defense can continue to shut down the running game like they have all season it will force the Ducks to throw and the Beavers pass rush will be key in putting pressure on them and force them into mistakes.

So we can pretty much throw out the stats for this game as we don't really know what will be on the field this saturday on either side of the ball.

THE BOTTOM LINE

I see the Beavers pass rush putting pressure on the Ducks QB's early and forcing them into mistakes much like WSU. This will give the Beavers short fields on offense. From there I see the Beavers opening up the ground game with Sieverson doing much of the carries and Polk coming in for plays to the outside. Once the Beavers establish a ground game they will continue their gameplan for the season with short and medium range passes. But it will be the play of the defense that ignites the offense in this game.

I look for both teams to play with great effort and intensity. As we all know the Civil War has almost always been a game where both sides contend regardless of records. The Ducks are playing for pride at this point and don't want to give up on a once stellar season. It is also senior day for the Ducks so they will be fired up to win the last home game for the seniors and salvage a quality bowl game. The Beavers are playing for something as well. The Beavers have not won in Autzen since 1993 and this teams looks to have the best chance of any team in recent history. The Beavers still have a chance to finished tied for first of second in the conference with a win and possibly go to the holiday bowl for the first time.

It will be a fun day, so lets all get ready for the 111th Civil War!

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 27
OREGON 12

GO BEAVERS!

BFS