BFS Current Story

Oct. 13, 2007

Hello Beaver Fans,

It has been a long and frustrating season already and we are only half way done. The Beavers are 3-3 and 1-2 in the PAC-10 so far this season. Sound familiar? It is a very similar start to last seasons, but can we expect the same type of turnaround this season as we saw last season? In fact the start is so eerily similar to last season that it makes you wonder. After 5 games last season we were 2-3 (this season 2-3). Two of the losses were big blow outs and the third was a win that got away. Matt Moore was throwing interceptions and the offense was struggling. Game 6 was a win over a weak Washington Husky team bringing the team to 3-3. It was week 7 where things started to happen when the Beavers went to Arizona and won a close game on the road to get to 4-3 and the following week shocked the nation by beating #2 ranked USC in Corvallis.

This year however, the game 7 road trip is to #2 ranked Cal and the game 8 home game is vs Stanford who just shocked the world by defeating #2 USC. So can the Beavers pull the shocker out of the bag again this year and on the road to boot? Probably 99.5% of the nation would say "No Chance". But there is that .5% of us Beaver fans who dare to dream the dream and never say die. Lets see how they can do it.

Of the 27 statistical categories that I look at before each game, CAL leads in 16 of those 27. But look deeper into the numbers and you can see where the cracks are that may just allow the Beavers to sneak out of Berkley with a win.

1. Cal is an offensive juggernaut that is for sure. But their offense is mostly ground oriented which was where the Beavers are currently ranked first in the PAC-10 and second in the nation in rushing defense. So expect the Beavers to shut down the running game of Cal and force them to the air which brings into play DeSean Jackson, the huge play maker for the Bears on offense and special teams. The Beavers are hurting in the secondary with some key injuries, but their pass defense, although not steller, has been able to hold up and make plays. So the first key factor to watch is the play of the Beavers secondary.

2. Next is the Beavers offense. The Beavers have to hold onto the ball and limit or completely avoid any turnovers in this game. They cannot afford to give Cal more chances to score then they will normally get and the Beavers cannot give the Bears short field opportunities. The Beavers have shown that in games where they do not turn the ball over they can win and probably would have won in 2 of their 3 loses if they could have held onto the ball. So the second key to the game is the play of Sean Canfield. Can he avoid the mental mistakes that have plaqued him this season in the passing game.

3. Last is the play of special teams. Cal has DeSean Jackson back to receive punts and the Beavers have their place kicker punting the ball thanks to the departure of last years freshman punter Kyle Loomis just two weeks before the season. So the Beavers need to come up with a strategy in the punt game to get Serna the time to make good punts and to keep Jackson from touching the ball. The fack that Serna is only averaging 28.3 yards per punt could be costly in the field position game with the Bears. But if the line can give Serna time he is capable of hitting some good punts and that will be key.

BY THE NUMBERS

Key
STATISTIC
OSU
Cal
Advantage
.
 Records
3-3 (1-2)
5-0 (2-0)
CAL
X
 Scoring Offense
27.5
39.4
CAL
X
 Scoring Defense
25.2
24.4
CAL
X
 Passing Offense
244.8
227.4
OSU
X
 Passing Defense
246.7
268.0
OSU
.
 Kickoff Returns
19.6
24.3
CAL
X
 Punting
28.3
37.7
CAL
X
 Turnover Margin
-9
+11
CAL
X
 Rushing Offense
155.2
198.6
CAL
X
 Rushing Defense
43.3
120.2
OSU
.
 Total Offense

400.0
426.0
CAL
.
 Total Defense
290.0
388.2
OSU
X
 Punt Return Average
6.4
13.8
CAL
X
 Pass Efficiency
104.7
131.7
CAL
X
 Pass Defense Efficiency
126.8
124.1
CAL
.
 First Downs
126
105
OSU
.
 Opponent First Downs
95
109
OSU
X
 Sacks
25
13
OSU
.
 Penalties
56.2
66.4
OSU
X
 Red Zone Offense
76.0
79.2
CAL
X
 Red Zone Defense
87.5
70.8
CAL
X
 3rd Down Conversions
40.2
45.5
CAL
X
 3rd Down Defense
31.6
39.2
OSU
X
 Sacks Allowed
10
4
CAL
.
 Field Goals
5/8
5/8
TIE
.
 Time of Possession
30.52
29.51
OSU
.
 Home Field Advantage
VISITOR
HOME
CAL
.
 Totals
10 wins
16 wins
CAL

 

Cal is the clear favorite in the game and to this point in the season the Beavers have shown little that would give any sane person the idea that the Beavers could pull off the upset. Although I though they would be more then a 14 point favorite.

Cal has a great offense that will constantly put pressure on the Beavers defense. So the Beavers offense must hold onto the ball and sustain scoring drives to keep the ball out of Cal hands as much as possible and also put points on the scoreboard. If the Beavers can do that, then the Cal offense will start to force things more and possibly make some key mistakes that could spell doom for the Bears.

If the Beavers can take care of the ball in the passing game and sustain the ground game on offense, stuff the run game on defense and hold their own on special teams, I can see the Beavers with a serious shot at the upset.

TH E BOTTOM LINE

Beavers have to find it within themselves to play a solid game. It does not have to be a perfect game but almost perfect. Cal will capitalize on mistakes and that is where the beavers must play a perfect game. No mistakes, no turnovers. If they can do that, the world of college football might, just might see another shocking upset.

FINAL SCORE

OSU 27 CAL 24

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