BFS Current Stories

Nov. 23, 2006

Hello Beaver Fans,

Well we are almost there. The biggest game of the year. For the 110th time Oregon State and Oregon will play each other in football this Friday afternoon at Reser Stadium in Corvallis. A national television audience will have the chance to view one of the most historic rivalry's in all of college football. The Civil War as we call it is the 7th oldest rivalry in college football. We may not have stadiums that seat 100,000 fans or have the name recognition that Ohio State - Michigan do, but this game divides a state like no other game.

People who live in Oregon who may not be a college football fan, know about this game. People who did not attend Oregon State or Oregon, know about this game. It divides families, offices and marriages. It is the most important sporting event in the state each and every year.

The series is remarkably even over the 110 years. Each side has gone on long streaks of winning as the advantage ebbs and flows from one side to the other. Oregon holds the advantage in the series 55-44-10 but a mere 30 years ago the advantage went to Oregon State. In the last 9 years the home team has won each time.

So with all that said, who is going to win the game. Well? Lets take a look at the numbers.

BY THE NUMBERS

Key	STATISTIC	OSU	U of O	Advantage
.	Records	7-4 (5-3)	7-4 (4-4)	OSU
X	Scoring Offense	25.9	31.5	UO
X	Scoring Defense	19.4	25.2	OSU
X	Passing Offense	230.6	244.8	UO
X	Passing Defense	190.7	147.7	UO
.	Kickoff Returns	20.4	21.6	UO
.	Punting	32.7	32.2	OSU
X	Turnover Margin	+5 / .45 pg	-9 / -.82 pg	OSU
X	Rushing Offense	126.8	192.9	UO
X	Rushing Defense	98.5	151.9	OSU
X	Total Offense	357.5	437.7	UO
X	Total Defense	289.3	299.6	OSU
.	Punt Return Average	14.7	11.2	OSU
.	Pass Efficiency	133.9	121.3	OSU
.	Pass Defense Efficiency	111.0	108.2	UO
.	First Downs	204	270	UO
.	Opponent First Downs	172	185	OSU
X	Sacks	38	27	OSU
.	Penalties	66.2	59.9	UO
X	Red Zone Offense	83.7	80.4	OSU
X	Red Zone Defense	72.4	78.6	OSU
X	3rd Down Conversions	36.6	48.3	UO
X	3rd Down Defense	26.1	33.3	OSU
X	Sacks Allowed	29	12	UO
.	Field Goals	18/25 .720	16/22 .727	UO
X	Time of Possession	32.23	28.50	OSU
.	Home Field Advantage	Home	Visitor	OSU
TIED	Totals	15 wins	12 wins	OSU

So with all those numbers at our disposal, what can we deduce from them to arrive at who will win the Civil War? Your guess is as good as mine. This game will be a very close game. After looking at the numbers I have chosen two other factors and one of the above factors that may prove to be the difference in the game.

The first is motivation. Both teams are motivated by bowls, but the advantage in motivation goes to Oregon State after getting their tails whipped last year in Eugene. Revenge alone should inspire them to victory.

The second factor is momentum. The Beavers have been on a hot streak, winning 5 of their last 6 games. Oregon has gone a little cold the last few weeks. Losing two in a row, on the road at USC and at home to Arizona. Momentum and confidence is big in this game.

The third factor is home field advantage. As said earlier, the home team has won 9 in a row. The crowd will be into it and it should fire up the Beavers.

TH E BOTTOM LINE

Once again it comes down to the Beavers taking care of the ball and not turning it over. Moore has to remain calm and have the kind of game that he has been having in 5 of the last 6 games. Make smart decisions, hang onto the ball. With their solid defense and ball control offense eating up the clock. I think the Beavers will win out in the long run.

FINAL SCORE

OSU 34 -- OREGON 20

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