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Game
11 - Oregon Ducks
Hello
Beaver Fans,
Well,
this is it. The big game, the Civil War. I have
thought about this long and hard this week and I
have decided to skip the analysis of the game because
I hate those stinking Ducks so much that I don'
t care if we are better or they are better. I just
want to kill them. Grind their bones into the ground
rubber that is Autzen Stadium.
We
could be #1 in all statistical categories or they
could be and I don't care. DUCKS STINK!
This
week has not been as fun as last years Civil War
week was for me. I went down town to do my annual, "park in front of the Duck Shop in downtown
Portland and play the OSU fight song. But there
were no Ducks to be seen outside the Duck Shop.
I sat there and waited for one to show up, but alas,
no one did.
So
I went in search of a Duck to taunt. I emailed Duck
friends, called some Ducks. But again, no one was
there. Have they all gone into hiding??
Once
again my stuffed Duck mascot is hanging in a noose
from the gutter of my house. Tomorrow it will adorn
the front bumper of my car for a drive into town.
Saturday I will be watching the game in the comfort
of my home surrounded by all the Duck fans on my
block. I guess I will be all by myself again.
THE
GAME
I
was just kidding about no analysis thing. I just
have to break it down. There are many factors to
consider that are not part of the stats in this
game.
The
Ducks are coming off 2 straight wins and so are
the Beavers. The Ducks are 7-4 (4-3) and the Beavers
are 7-3 (4-2). The Ducks are at home and the Beavers
are on the road. The latest weather report calls
for 40 degrees and mostly sunny. The Ducks are looking
for revenge for last years defeat to the Beavers
in Corvallis. The Beavers are looking to finish
as high as tied for the Conference Title with a
win over the Ducks and a loss by the Cougars and
USC. The Ducks are looking to salvage their season
that at one time ranked them in the top ten.
As
I said, there are many factors to this game and
I am sure that there are more then I listed here.
After
listening to all the media people discuss the game
all week and watching the tape of last years game
twice. I firmly believe that the Beavers are the
better team of the two. The Beavers defense is very
very good and the Ducks offense has been struggling
in almost every game this season. The one big advantage
the Ducks have in this game is the advantage they
have on special teams. The Ducks special teams have
scored points all season long where the Beavers
special teams are not that good. But I don't believe
the Ducks special teams can overcome the disadvantage
they will have against the Beavers defense.
The
other big factor is the performance of Derek Anderson.
If he has a good game their is no way the Ducks
win the game. Anderson is 11-0 as a starter when
completing 50% of his passes. Last year the Ducks
would have taken that into account as well. Same
QB (Anderson) and same running back (Jackson). But
the Duck defense could not stop the Beavers offense.
Home
field advantage is a factor but not enough to pull
it out for the Ducks.
BY
THE NUMBERS
The
Beavers have the advantage in 16 of the 21 categories
reviewed with the Ducks holding the advantage in
special teams areas, penalties and in total sacks.
The Beavers are also ranked in the top three in
14 of the 21 reviewed and the Ducks are only ranked
in the top three in four categories. The sacks issue
is a concern in disrupting Anderson but the Beavers
have played other teams this season that have had
the advantage in sacks with no affect on the game.
One
big factor that is not reviewed is 3rd down defense.
The Beavers are #2 behind the Cougars in 3rd down
defense. Third down defense is a big factor in shutting
down an offense and stopping a drive.
However
the numbers fall we all know that in this game you
can through the numbers out the window. It is all
about the game.
THE
SERIES
This
will be the 107th edition of the Civil War. Oregon
currently holds a 53-43-10 lead in the series. Oregon
State is on a one-game winning streak as a result
of winning 45-24 in Corvallis last year. The home
team has won the last six games. The Beavers have
a 22-24-3 record in Eugene and 17-26-5 in Corvallis.
Mike Riley is 1-1 vs. the Ducks, while Oregon coach
Mike Bellotti is 5-3 vs. OSU. The 45 points scored
by OSU last year is the most ever by the Beavers
in the series. OSU's last win in Eugene was 15-12
in 1993. Oregon has won four straight in Eugene
vs. the Beavers.
THE
BOTTOM LINE
The
crowd will be loud and the tension will be thick.
The Beavers are the better team and should win this
game. They beat the Cal Bears on the road and the
Bears just about beat the Ducks in Eugene.
The
Ducks will ride emotion early and keep the game
close. The Beavers will pull ahead in the second
quarter and stretch it out in the fourth quarter
for the victory.
GO
BEAVERS, BEAT THE DUCKS!
FINAL
SCORE
Beavers
31
Oregon 21
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