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Game
9 - Arizona Wildcats
Hello
Beaver Fans,
Well
my brain is still recovering from last weekends
game at Washington State. The game was the kind
of game that you may only see once in your lifetime
for all the things that occurred in the game. So
for that reason I am glad I went to Pullman to watch
it in person. If I had been watching on TV I would
have turned it off. On the other hand the loss was
about a disappointing a loss as you could possibly
have.
This
week the Beavers get the chance to regroup and prepare
for the chance to get back into a top bowl game.
With four games left in the season the Beavers are
in a four way tie for fourth place in the PAC-10.
That places them in the Insight Bowl again or the
Las Vegas Bowl.
With
a win this week at home the Beavers will have their
second Bye of the season before playing Stanford
at home. The next two homes games are huge for the
Beavers and also must win games. Two wins at home
will make the Beavers Bowl eligible and also most
likely move them into third place in the PAC-10.
Both USC and UCLA have to play Washington State
the next two weeks. Also USC and UCLA play each
other in three weeks. Back to back wins by the Beavers
will build momentum in the program and help going
into the Civil War in three weeks.
I
look for USC to have 1 loss and WSU and UCLA to
have 2 losses each going into the OSU - USC game
in December. If the Beavers can win the next two
at home (which should be no problem if they play
well) then the Civil War becomes big. If (excuse
me) when the Beavers win the Civil War that puts
them tied for second with a shot at the co-conference
title with a win at USC.
So
with all those possibilities in mind, tomorrow's
game is very big for the Beavers.
THE
GAME
The
Beavers come into tomorrow's game on a two game
losing streak. If these players are competitors,
and I believe they are. They should be ready to
chew glass on Saturday. If I were an Arizona running
back or wide receiver, I might just come down with
the flu before tomorrow's game.
The
Beavers will have a gigantic chip on their shoulders
after the loss in Pullman and should be looking
to dismantle Arizona. Arizona's premiere running
back Clarence Farmer is out for the season and they
will face Michael Bell at running back. Bell gained
182 yards last week in a loss to Cal. but Bell has
only 521 on the season.
Which
of Arizona's three QB's the Beavers will see is
a toss-up. Kris Heavner started the last game, but
NIck Costa played as well.
BY
THE NUMBERS
The
Beavers dominate the statistics over the Wildcats
in this game. The Beavers rank at or near the top
of the conference in 13 statistical categories.
The Wildcats rank at or near the bottom of the conference
in 18 statistical categories.
The
only real areas the Wildcats have statistical advantage
over the Beavers are in sacks allowed (13 to 20),
and of course Special Teams and Penalties. The Beavers
are last in the conference in all special teams
areas and also in penalties.
The
offensive and defense differences are scarey to
look at if you are an Arizona fan. The Beavers gain
fourteen points more on offense and allow 14 points
less on defense then Arizona. The Beavers average
140+ yards more on offense and allowed 140+ yards
less on defense then Arizona.
Arizona
also allows almost 200 yards per game on the ground
this season which should lead to a big game for
Steven Jackson.
THE
SERIES
Oregon
State and Arizona have played 26 games in the series
with the Wildcats holding a 19-6-1 overall edge.
Oregon State has run away from Arizona in the last
three years by a 109-15 combined score. OSU has
won the last four meetings, winning 28-20 in Corvallis
in 1999, 33-9 in Tucson in 2000 and back-to-back
38-3 wins the past two years in Corvallis. All told,
the Beavers are 4-7-1 in Corvallis , 1-1 in Portland
and 1-11 in Tucson. Mike Riley is 0-2 vs. Arizona.
Typically
not a closely played game: one tie (14-14 in 1992),
a 21-17 UA victory in 1978 and a 14-9 UA victory
in 1995 are the only one-touchdown margins in the
series. The rest of the games were decided by an
average score of 32-9... UA holds an 8-5-1 edge
in games played in Oregon (the teams split at Portland
in '66 and '84)...
THE
BOTTOM LINE
Look
for the Beavers to win and win very very big on
Saturday. With the memory of two losses still fresh
in the players minds they will be out for blood
on the day after Halloween.
I
look for Jackson to carry the ball 35 times for
over 200 yards and perhaps over 250 yards. Anderson
will have a good game with more time to throw with
Jackson keeps the Wildcats off balance.
Arizona
does not throw many interceptions so the turnovers
will be few in this game. Arizona kicker is last
in the conference making only 22% of his kicks,
so they have to score TD's to put points on the
board.
The
Beavers will shut down the running game and Browner
and Meeuwsen will shut down the passing game.
This
will be the big win the team really needs right
now to get back on track.
FINAL
SCORE (Analytical Side)
Beavers
49
Arizona 13
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