2002 Football Insight Bowl Special

Hello Beaver Fans

Well we are only one week away from the big game. Is everyone out there getting pumped up? I know I am. I believe this is going to be a very good football game and the outcome will be decided in the 4th quarter. The teams are very well matched statistically.

Has everyone got their plans for the game. I will be (hopefully) attending both the Christmas night alumni social at Majerle's Sports Grill and also the alumni tailgater at Copperstown before the game. I will be the one wearing orange with the camera taking photos for my post bowl game article. If you are there for either event please say hi if you see me.

I am really looking forward to seeing the BOB. It is suppose to be a beautiful ball park. Since I am a major baseball fan it will be cool for me to be there. The beaver athletic department says that all of the Beavers seats for the game are in the end zone on the first base side of the field and Pitt's seats are on the other end zone. Mid field seats are for local residents who buy them every year. My tickets are in the second deck and I have extra if anyone needs one.

I plan to spend some time during the game walking around the field taking pictures from different angles to get a good cross section of the game. Might even take some of a few Pitt fans. From what I have seen on the different fans forums around the Internet, Pitt fans are pretty cocky about what they think they are going to do to the Beavers. Who do they think they are… Miami!

So who has the best bowl game attire? I have not seen any yet around town. Might wait to get it at the game. Any ideas?

WEBSITE NOTE - In the near future I will have a fan forum called "The Trash Bin" on the One Dog Sports website for all of you to come and express yourself. It is in the works and I hope to have it up after the first of the year just in time for Basketball.

THE GAME

As I said earlier, I believe this game will be very close.

The Big East Conference website does not have the same quality stats that the PAC-10 website does so I could not match up everything that I do during the regular season. But in running down though the 20 categories I look at, the Beavers have the advantage in 12 and Pittsburgh has the advantage in 6 with 2 not available to compare.

Pittsburgh is not a big offensive powerhouse and relies on its defense to win games. Pitts leading rusher, Brandon Miree, had 830 yards and 3 td's on the season while Steven Jackson rushed for 1656 yards and 15 td's. Pitts QB Rod Rutherford threw for 2600 yards on 179-341 passes and 21 td's, he also ran for 412 yards and 5 td's. Rutherford is the real threat in the game for Pittsburgh. Derek Anderson threw for 2994 yards on 190-404 passes and 24 td's.

Pittsburgh's big play receive is Fitzgerald. He had 64 catches for 917 yards and 11 td's this season. Their other main receivers are Slade 45/613 yards, Bynes 18/404 yards and Wilson 17/382 yards. In comparison the beavers big play receiver is James Newson who had 64 catches for 1119 yards and 11 td's. Very comparable to Fitzgerald's numbers. Pitt completed passes to 13 different receivers during the season while the Beavers completed passes to 15 different receivers.

The defenses of both teams are where the rubber meets the road. These are two of the top defenses in the nation. The Beavers are ranked 10th in the nation and Pitt is 11th. Both schools played top ranked teams over the course of the season and Pitt probably played the tougher schedule. All of their losses were to nationally ranked teams, 2 at home and 2 on the road. Three of the Beavers loses were to teams who were ranked at the time of the game. The toughest team the Beavers played was USC and they have a defense similar to Pitts. We did not do very well in that game but we were coming off injuries with a patched up offensive line. So with the line back at full strength, we should be ready to go there.

Defensively the stats are split between the two teams. Pitt has the advantage in scoring and passing, the Beavers have the advantage in rushing and total defense. A big factor could be sacks allowed. Because Pitt runs the ball so much with their QB they have given up 41 sacks on the season in 12 games. That is 3.5 per game. The Beavers have done much better in that area in the final games of the season giving up 26 on the season.

The only team that both Pittsburgh and Oregon State played this season was Temple. Pittsburgh won 29-22 at home and the Beavers won 35-3 on the road.

BY THE NUMBERS
*indicates advantage

SEASON STATS
OSU
PITTSBURGH

SCORING OFF.(PPG)

33.4*
24.4
SCORING DEF.(PPG)
19.1
18.2*
PASSING OFF(YPG)
257.9*
217.8
PASSING DEF. (YPG)
200.7
166.8*
RUSHING OFF.(YPG)
160.4*
145.2
RUSHING DEF.(YPG)
92.3*
126.6
TOTAL OFF
418.3*
363.0
TOTAL DEF.
293.0*
293.4
TURNOVER RATIO
+10*
+8
INTERCEPTIONS (D)
20*
14
INTERCEPTIONS (O)
13
12*
FUMBLES LOST
10*
11
PENALTIES(YPG)
101.0
49.1*
SACKS TAKEN
28*
27
SACKS ALLOWED
26*
41
THIRD DOWN CONVER.
37.3%
38%*
RED ZONE OFFENSE
85.1%
N/A
RED ZONE DEFENSE
64.9%
N/A
FIELD GOALS
.778*
.652
TIME OF POSS.
28:57
32:08*

WHO TO WATCH FOR PITTSBURGH

Larry Fitzgerald WR - First in conference in receptions per game, 2nd in receiving yards
Andy Lee P - 1st in conference
David Abdul PK - 1st in conference in PAT %, 3rd in FG %
Rod Rutherford QB - 2nd total offense, 3rd in passing efficiency
Claude Harriott DL - 1st in fumbles forced, 4th in tackles for a loss

WHO TO WATCH FOR THE BEAVERS

Derek Anderson - He needs to show the same form that he had in the Civil War for the Beavers to win.
Steven Jackson - Needs to rush for 150 yards plus and we win.
James Newson - Needs to show he is the go to guy and make the big catch.
Offensive Line - Need to continue the good play of the last three weeks of the season.
Dennis Weathersby - Needs to shut down Pitts big play receivers.
Richard Siegler - Needs to keep an eye on Rutherford to prevent him from rushing the ball.
Defense - Needs the play their best game of the season.


THE BOTTOM LINE

This is a big game for the Beavers even if it is not a big bowl game. A win in this game can be the spring board to an even better year next year. The O line needs to block and block well so the Anderson has the time to run the offense. If the Beavers can jump out to an early lead the game can get out of reach in a hurry. Pitt is a ball control offense that is not good at coming from behind. They use the defense to keep them in the game and get field position for the grind it out offense. I look for the Beavers to score early on a big play like the screen to Jackson in the Civil War. Pitt will be looking for the run and the long pass. The screen may be the big play for the Beavers. We did not run it a lot this season so they might not expect it much.

The field is grass but it is a fast surface and the Beavers speed should show up on defense. Like Notre Dame, I don't think Pitt knows just how fast the defense is and may be shocked to see it live.

I don't look for an up and down the field scoring battle. I believe this game will turn on two or three big plays. The plays could be defensive, providing field position for the offense. I expect the Beavers team speed and quick strike ability to overcome the Pitt defense and for the Beavers to win in a well fought game.

FINAL SCORE

BEAVERS 31

PITTSBURGH 17

GO BEAVERS!

SEE YOU IN PHOENIX!

BFS